Nobody knows for sure the future
of libraries and other information organizations because:
Trends in computer and
Internet technologies often have unexpected effects.
Examples:
The adverse effect of
online bookstores (really, Amazon more than any other) on
independent and, even, chain bookstores.
The emergence of
"shopping bots" that make it easier to find the lowest
price on a products offered by multiple online
retailers.
The library community does not
have a grasp on the long-term impacts of such competitors as
search engines, Internet directories, question-and-answer sites
(eg. Ask Jeeves).
There are some
obvious trends:
Explosive growth in the use of
computers and computer-related systems in all types of libraries,
in both technical and public services.
Explosive growth in the use of
and stated preference for online information systems.
This relates to a greater
customer demand that K-12, public, academic, and special libraries
provide remote access to online information resources that they
can access from home.
This, in turn, relates to
increasing competition with other suppliers of information to the
public, including:
Internet search tools such as
AltaVista, Yahoo, Open Directory, All-the-Web, Northern Light,
Google.
Other libraries, local and
remote.
Major media corporations such
as Time-Warner
Internet services such as AOL,
MSN
So called "portals" such as
Netscape, AOL, and Yahoo
Online database services such
as Electric Library, NorthernLight, Encyclopedia Britannica,
Information Please.
Bookstores
Former San Francisco Library
Director Ken Dowlin was one of many library professionals who have
written about this. Dowlin did in his 1995 essay, "Distribution in
an electronic environment, or will there be libraries as we know
them in the Internet world?" (Library Trends, Winter
1995)
Growth of consortia of libraries
to:
Drive down the cost of
licensing online databases.
Examples: The University of
California, California State University, Foundation for
California Community Colleges, and local school and
public-library consortia.
Share books (inter-library
loan) in more convenient, efficient, and cost-effective ways.
Example: The
Innopac/Innovative Interfaces Inc (III)
"Link-plus.".
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